Petit J.R., Jouzel J., Raynaud D., Barkov N.I.,Barnola J.M., Basile I., Bender M., Chappellaz J., Davis J., Delaygue G., Delmotte M., Kotlyakov V.M., Legrand M., Lipenkov V., Lorius C., Pépin L., Ritz C., Saltzman E., Stievenard M. (1999). Climate and Atmospheric History of the Past 420,000 years from the Vostok Ice Core, Antarctica, Nature, 399: 429-436.
The following graph (Ice Core data) has been used by the Global Warming proponents as proof that CO2 is the cause for greenhouse affect. The other side does not challenge the data. However, the only thing that it proves is that a correla-tion exists between CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and global temperatures. What the former group fails to acknowledge is that is a general warming is the source of increased CO2 and not the cause.
New high-resolution studies show that at times of cold to warm transitions, temperature changes come first, lead-ing CO2 changes by several centuries (Mudelsee, 2001; Clark, 2003; Vakulenko et al., 2004). If so, the CO2 levels could be response to, and not a cause of, the change in temperature (climate). CO2 may then serve as a temperature amplifier, but not as the climate driver." Judge for yourself (see graph below) [Watch YouTube Debate]
The following Exhibit is from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Technical Report (Topic 2). It shows the temperature changes during the last century for the various continents. It also tries to show Model successes.
Last
2000
Years
The reconstructions used, in order from oldest to most recent publication are:
(dark blue 1000-1991): P.D. Jones, K.R. Briffa, T.P. Barnett, and S.F.B. Tett (1998). High-resolution Palaeoclimatic Records for the last Millennium: Interpretation, Integration and Comparison with General Circulation Model Control-run Temperatures, The Holocene, 8: 455-471.
(blue 1000-1980): M.E. Mann, R.S. Bradley, and M.K. Hughes (1999). Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations, Geophysical Research Letters, 26(6): 759-762.
(light blue 1000-1965): Crowley and Lowery (2000). Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction, Ambio, 29: 51-54. Modified as published in Crowley (2000). Causes of Climate Change Over the Past 1000 Years, Science, 289: 270-277.
(lightest blue 1402-1960): K.R. Briffa, T.J. Osborn, F.H. Schweingruber, I.C. Harris, P.D. Jones, S.G. Shiyatov, S.G. and E.A. Vaganov (2001). Low-frequency temperature variations from a northern tree-ring density network, J. Geophys. Res., 106: 2929-2941.
(light green 831-1992): J. Esper, E.R. Cook, and F.H. Schweingruber (2002). Low-Frequency Signals in Long Tree-Ring Chronologies for Reconstructing Past Temperature Variability, Science, 295(5563): 2250-2253.
(yellow 200-1980): M.E. Mann and P.D. Jones (2003). Global Surface Temperatures over the Past Two Millennia, Geophysical Research Letters, 30(15): 1820. DOI:10.1029/2003GL017814.
(orange 200-1995): P.D. Jones and M.E. Mann (2004). Climate Over Past Millennia, Reviews of Geophysics, 42: RG2002. DOI:10.1029/2003RG000143
(red-orange 1500-1980): S. Huang (2004). Merging Information from Different Resources for New Insights into Climate Change in the Past and Future, Geophys. Res Lett., 31: L13205. DOI:10.1029/2004GL019781
(red 1-1979): A. Moberg, D.M. Sonechkin, K. Holmgren, N.M. Datsenko and W. Karlén (2005). Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data, Nature, 443: 613-617. DOI:10.1038/nature03265
(dark red 1600-1990): J.H. Oerlemans (2005). Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records, Science, 308: 675-677. DOI:10.1126/science.1107046
(black 1856-2004): Instrumental data was jointly compiled by the Climatic Research Unit and the UK Meteorological Office Hadley Centre. Global Annual Average data set TaveGL2v [1] was used.
Documentation for the most recent update of the CRU/Hadley instrumental data set appears in: P.D. Jones and A. Moberg (2003). Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2001, Journal of Climate, 16: 206-223.
The near term temperature change data is important. In the above graph expanding the apparently flat temperature change (far left side) in the last 2000 year we would find the following:
The BLACK LINE in the above graph issue is summarized in the opening statement in the IPCC Fourth Assess-ment Technical Report: Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). The 100-year linear trend (1906-2005) of 0.74 [0.56 to 0.92]°C is larger than the corresponding trend trend of 0.6 [0.4 to 0.8]°C (1901-2000) given in the Third Assessment Report (TAR) (Figure 1.1). The linear warming trend over the 50 years 1956-2005 (0.13 [0.10 to 0.16]°C per decade) is nearly twice that for the 100 years 1906-2005.
Order of HOTTEST Years in last century
IPCC CLAIM
CORRECTED DATA
Black line is BAD data. See below
