Changes in the atmospheric concentrations of GHGs [Greenhouse Gases] and aerosols, land cover and solar radiation alter the energy balance of the climate system and are drivers of climate change. They affect the absorption, scattering and emission of radiation within the atmosphere and at the Earth’s surface. The resulting positive or negative changes in energy balance due to these factors are expressed as radiative forcing, which is used to compare warming or cooling influences on global climate.
Most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. This is an advance since the TAR’s conclusion that “most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in GHG concentrations” . . . IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
IPCC FAR Exhibit: Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O over the last 10,000 years (large panels) and since 1750 (inset panels). Measurements are shown from ice cores (symbols with different colours for different studies) and atmospheric samples (red lines). The corresponding radiative forcings relative to 1750 are shown on the right hand axes of the large panels. {WGI Figure SPM.1}
NOTE: We have excluded claims made Al Gore. Most researchers consider Gore to be in the extremist fringe and not competent to discuss climate science. (See YouTube Video)
OBSERVATIONS ABOUT IPCC GRAPHS
- The relative flat concentration levels are inconsistent with previous ice-core data.
- In this period the planet experienced global warming higher than current projected levels (Holocene Period). The IPCC GHG data show almost NO change at that time.
- No scientific confirmation exists that demonstrates cause and effect for GHG's having a high level of forcing for global warming! The IPCC argument is based strictly on circumstantial evidence!
For most of the last 600 million years, the Earth’s climate has been steady at an average temperature of 22°, apart from periods of ice ages. Ice ages have occurred roughly 140 million years apart, driven by the Sun’s position in the spiral arms of the Milky Way galaxy.
This graph shows the geologic record of atmospheric CO2 does NOT correlate with global temperature.
The Earth went into an ice age 450 million years ago despite a level of atmospheric carbon dioxide that is ten times what it is today. 150 million years ago, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were five times what they are today, but that didn’t stop a Cretaceous-aged glaciation.
The effect of CO2 on temperature is logarithmic - climate sensitivity decreases with increasing concentration.
The first 20 ppm of CO2 has a greater temperature effect than the next 400 ppm.
Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, increased atmospheric CO2 has
increased the temperature of the atmosphere by 0.1°.
By 2030 the level of CO2 is projected to increase from 380 ppm to 420 ppm.
which equates to an increase in atmospheric temperature of 0.04°C.
By 2150 the CO2 content is projected to increase an additional 200 ppm to 620 ppm,
results in a further 0.16°C increase in atmospheric temperature.
Good short-term correlation fails as time is lengthened and data increased as the follwoing case with CO2.
CO2 EFFECTS ON ATMOSPHERE SCIENCE IS WELL UNDERSTOOD
WARMING EFFECT OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 IS LOGARITHMIC
Using the University of Chicago MODTRAN facility, the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide content and increase in average global atmospheric temperature is shown in this graph.
CO2 IMPACT ON WARMING IS REAL, BUT MINISCULE
DRIVERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE by Chicken Little
IPCC TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS CHALLENGED AS
3-FOLD EXAGGERATION
A calculation error by IPCC that points to threefold exaggeration of projected temperature increase this cen-tury has been revealed by A British peer and an Australian climate mathematician. Independent Mathematicians Hand IPCC Potentially Major Problem: Expected Temperature Rise 1 degree, Not 3.
In a move that could mark a significant turning point in the history of the greenhouse warming debate, Viscount Christopher Monckton and Dr David Evans produced a document with a mathematical proof that the IPCC have overestimated the effect of greenhouse forcings by as much as threefold. The document attached was distributed to all delegates of the plenary session on 12/13/07 at the UNFCCC conference in Bali.
There are thousands of scientific papers related to climate change and greenhouse gases, almost all of which assume that CO2 and other greenhouse gases have a significant effect on temperature. The Monckton and Evans paper attacks the most central point underlying all the others. They used the Stefan–Boltzmann equation, and another method, to show that the IPCC is exaggerating the effect of CO2 on global temperatures.
Their calculations need to be repeated by other independent scientists, but, if they are correct,
it would mean that there is no basis for action on carbon emissions.
When asked “Why should we believe your results when there are thousands of papers pointing to greenhouse gases having a significant effect?” Dr David Evans replied: “It only takes one paper to disprove a theory. Science is not a democratic process. It’s about who has the better answer”.
Joanne Nova, International Climate Science Coalition, said: “Almost all papers published on greenhouse gases and climate assume that temperature sensitivity of the climate to small changes in greenhouse gases is significant. Only a small proportion of papers address that topic exactly, and if a few central papers are wrong, the whole debate changes.”
BIO’s
Viscount Christopher Monckton of Brenchley is a Nobel Prize winning contributor to IPCC reports. Viscount Monckton has been an outspoken critic of the Kyoto Treaty and the IPCC scientific process. He was science advisor to Margaret Thatcher, his articles have been published in many prominent papers worldwide, and he is presently a member of the House of Lords.
Dr David Evans has six degrees in Maths, Stats, and Electrical Engineering, including three from Stanford.
